What’s Shaking, SoCal?

  • Susan Hough, a nationally acclaimed seismologist who has written books on the subject of earthquakes, spoke at CSUN on the subject of earthquake prediction. Photo by Nestor Garcia.

  • "Predicting the Unpredictable" and "Earthshaking Science" are two of the books that Hough has written on the subject of earthquakes. Photo by Nestor Garcia.

The recent earthquakes that have been shaking up California also have sparked renewed interest in earthquake preparedness.

Susan E. Hough, a nationally acclaimed seismologist, led an engaging discussion about earthquake prediction and early-warning systems at “What’s Shaking, SoCal? We Hope It’s Not Our Fault” on Friday, April 11 at California State University, Northridge. The Friends of the Oviatt Library sponsored the lecture, which was held in the Ferman Presentation Room.

A common misunderstanding many people have about earthquake prediction is that seismologists are able to calculate exactly when an earthquake will happen. Hough clarified what seismologists actually predict: A seismologist’s biggest concern is whether a building in California can withstand a big earthquake, because there is not a sure way to calculate exactly when one may occur.

“We cannot predict an earthquake before it happens,” Hough said. “We can look at where the faults are, how much energy is being stored up and how fast the plates are moving to predict where a huge earthquake might happen — in order to generate seismic hazard maps and for building codes. ”

She also shared that for the first time in California, alarm systems are being tested to give the public 25 seconds’ warning before the ground will start to shake.

“Once an earthquake starts, seismologists can tell if it is going to be a big one,” Hough explained. “Then they will generate a message to send to population centers at the speed of light, and that will get to people a lot faster than the shaking, which travels at the speed of sound — which is similar to lightning and thunder.”

This new system may be available in the next five years if the funding for seismic research increases, but Hough warns that early warnings are no substitute for preparedness as the warning may not get out in time.

She ended the lecture by taking questions from the audience and signing her latest books “Predicting the Unpredictable: The Tumultuous Science of Earthquake Prediction, Richter’s Scale: Measure of an Earthquake, Measure of a Man, and Earthshaking Science: What We Know (and Don’t Know) about Earthquakes.

Friends of the Library support and co-sponsor a variety of library events, from special speakers and book signings to library exhibit openings and an ongoing student employee scholarship program.The organization was founded so that members of the community might become active participants in the Library at California State University, Northridge.For more information about Friends of the Library, please visit its website at http://library.csun.edu/Friends.